Northern Iowa

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	138.0
Current RPI:	138
Expected SOS:	73
Current SOS:	73
Current Record:	14-16
Expected Record:	14-16
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	10-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	2-0
Current OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC Record:	6-4
Expected OOC RPI:	96
Expected OOC SOS:	46

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
14-16	138.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Northern Iowa.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	North Carolina (4.0)	ACC	A	86-69	L	0%
11-13	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	73-45	W	100%
11-18	Chicago St. (335.0)	WAC	H	82-44	W	100%
11-22	SMU (113.0)	Amer	N	58-61	W	100%
11-23	North Carolina St. (64.0)	ACC	N	64-60	W	100%
11-24	Villanova (2.0)	BE	N	50-64	L	0%
11-29	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	H	77-68	W	100%
12-7	UT Arlington (108.0)	SB	H	62-58	W	100%
12-16	Iowa St. (144.0)	B12	N	76-65	L	0%
12-22	Xavier (3.0)	BE	H	67-77	L	0%
12-28	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	H	53-56	L	0%
12-31	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	72-53	L	0%
1-4	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	A	62-55	L	0%
1-7	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	H	50-56	L	0%
1-10	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	A	69-67	L	0%
1-13	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	H	81-76	W	100%
1-16	Drake (166.0)	MVC	H	68-54	W	100%
1-21	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	64-53	L	0%
1-24	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	H	83-72	W	100%
1-28	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	70-47	L	0%
1-31	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	57-49	L	0%
2-3	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	H	66-77	L	0%
2-7	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	H	74-65	W	100%
2-10	Drake (166.0)	MVC	A	71-64	L	0%
2-13	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	H	47-41	W	100%
2-17	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	79-75	L	0%
2-20	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	A	63-68	W	100%
2-24	Missouri St. (136.0)	MVC	H	71-56	W	100%
3-1	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	N	50-60	W	100%
3-2	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	N	54-50	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Northern Iowa's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Northern Iowa's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Northern Iowa.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Northern Iowa	MVC	26.49	26.49	42.62	42.62	-3.91	-3.91
Loyola Chicago	MVC	6.02	6.02	82.76	82.76	3.94	3.94
Evansville	MVC	5.91	5.91	51.85	51.85	0.22	0.22
Illinois St.	MVC	4.49	4.49	53.33	53.33	0.30	0.30
Bradley	MVC	4.46	4.46	60.00	60.00	0.89	0.89
Missouri St.	MVC	4.41	4.41	53.33	53.33	0.29	0.29
Southern Illinois	MVC	4.41	4.41	56.67	56.67	0.59	0.59
Drake	MVC	4.38	4.38	48.28	48.28	-0.15	-0.15
Valparaiso	MVC	4.35	4.35	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
Indiana St.	MVC	4.34	4.34	33.33	33.33	-1.45	-1.45
Chicago St.	WAC	1.77	1.77	3.45	3.45	-1.65	-1.65
North Carolina	ACC	1.72	1.72	70.59	70.59	0.71	0.71
Villanova	BE	1.72	1.72	87.88	87.88	1.30	1.30
Xavier	BE	1.72	1.72	84.38	84.38	1.18	1.18
North Carolina St.	ACC	1.71	1.71	67.74	67.74	0.61	0.61
Iowa St.	B12	1.70	1.70	40.00	40.00	-0.34	-0.34
Alcorn St.	SWAC	1.69	1.69	25.93	25.93	-0.82	-0.82
SMU	Amer	1.67	1.67	53.12	53.12	0.10	0.10
UNLV	MWC	1.67	1.67	62.50	62.50	0.42	0.42
UT Arlington	SB	1.67	1.67	62.50	62.50	0.42	0.42
Boise St.	MWC	0.23	0.23	73.33	73.33	0.11	0.11
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.19	0.19	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.18	0.18	78.79	78.79	0.10	0.10
Nevada	MWC	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.16	0.16	12.50	12.50	-0.12	-0.12
UMKC	WAC	0.16	0.16	27.59	27.59	-0.07	-0.07
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.16	0.16	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Georgia Southern	SB	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Creighton	BE	0.15	0.15	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Marquette	BE	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.15	0.15	61.76	61.76	0.04	0.04
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.14	0.14	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Fresno St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.13	0.13	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Air Force	MWC	0.13	0.13	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wright St.	Horz	0.13	0.13	71.88	71.88	0.06	0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Notre Dame	ACC	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.12	0.12	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Butler	BE	0.12	0.12	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.11	0.11	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.11	0.11	30.00	30.00	-0.04	-0.04
Iowa	B10	0.11	0.11	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.06	0.06
Milwaukee	Horz	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	82.76	82.76	0.07	0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.10	0.10	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
San Jose St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	10.34	10.34	-0.08	-0.08
Louisville	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Tennessee	SEC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Cincinnati	Amer	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
Clemson	ACC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.08	0.08	83.33	83.33	0.06	0.06
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.08	0.08	82.35	82.35	0.05	0.05
North Texas	CUSA	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Texas	B12	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wyoming	MWC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.08	0.08	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
Arizona	P12	0.08	0.08	79.41	79.41	0.05	0.05
Boston College	ACC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	93.94	93.94	0.06	0.06
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.06	0.06	9.68	9.68	-0.05	-0.05
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.06	0.06	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Indiana	B10	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Santa Clara	WCC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.06	0.06	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Utah Valley	WAC	0.06	0.06	65.52	65.52	0.02	0.02
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.03	0.03
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
IUPUI	Horz	0.05	0.05	32.14	32.14	-0.02	-0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.24	17.24	-0.03	-0.03
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Bryant	NEC	0.03	0.03	9.68	9.68	-0.02	-0.02
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.01	0.01
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Rider	MAAC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.02	0.02	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
La Salle	A10	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Lafayette	Pat	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.02	0.02	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.02	0.02	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Ohio St.	B10	0.02	0.02	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wofford	SC	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00